城镇居民消费结构的动态变迁分析——基于LA/AIDS模型

The Dynamic Analysis of Consumption Structure Change of Urban Residents:Based on the LA/AIDS Model

文章使用1985-2011年城镇居民家庭人均收入和消费结构相关数据,利用时间嵌入路径LA/AIDS模型对我国城镇居民消费结构变化进行了定量分析,考察了居民消费结构的数量变化特征和居民生活改善程度。结果表明:1992-2003年间是城镇居民消费方式发生转变的重要时期,通过分析不同时期各类消费品的需求弹性、交叉弹性及支出弹性变化情况发现,粮食作为生活的必需品,其弹性值变化不大;肉类、交通通信支出的弹性值逐步变小,消费量逐年上升;随着居民收入水平提高,医疗保健支出弹性逐渐变大,有望成为"十二五"期间努力扩大消费的重点。

With the statistics of urban households per capita income and consumption structure during 1985-2011 ,using time embedded path LA/AIDS model ,the paper made the quantitative analysis on Chinese urban residents’ consumption structure change ,and investigated both the quantity change characteristics and the improvement degree of residents’ lives .Results showed that an important period of urban resi-dents’ consumption mode change during 1992 -2003 .Through the analysis of demand elasticity ,cross e-lasticity and spending elasticity of all kinds of consumer goods in different periods ,the paper found that the changes of grain which was the necessity of life whose flexibility value changed little ;the elasticity value of meat ,transportation and communication decreased gradually , the consumption has been rising year by year ;as increase of the income levels ,health care expenditure elasticity increased gradually which was ex-pected to become the focus of efforts to expand consumption during “twelfth five-year” period .