我国成本推进型通货膨胀分析

An Analysis of China's Cost-Propelled Inflation

推进通货膨胀的因素,既可以从需求方面分析,也可以从成本方面分析。成本提高可能引起价格水平上升,这是经济学常识。50年代以来西方重新流行的成本推进通货膨胀理论认为,通货膨胀的根源不是经济的需求方面,而是经济的供给方面或成本方面。这种推进可分为“工资推进”和“利润推进”两类。在一个完全竞争的市场中,任何特定的利益集团都无法凭借超经济的权力获得超额收益,因而也无法引起成本推进的通货膨胀。在不完全竞争市场中,工会以及少数垄断性部门却可以使收入的增长超过劳动生产率和经济的增长,因而就产生了成本推进的通货膨胀。在我国,还没有一个完全竞争的市场,个人收入与有些重点部门收入都存在很强的刚性。这种刚性基本上有两种类型,一是基础产业收入上升的压力,二是来自加工部门收入不能降低的刚性。初级产品价值量不断增大和各经济部门收入刚性的存在,是产生成本推进通货膨胀的客观基础。本文从对我国近年来通货膨胀发展过程的概括性描述入手,对我国成本推进通货膨胀进行具体的实证分析。分析表明,各经济部门的利益刚性以及在此基础上形成的成本推动机制是导致我国通货膨胀的决定性力量;货币扩张是利益刚性作用条件下成本持续上升的结果。

Inflation can be studied in terms of supply and demand and also in terms of cost. It is common knowledge of economics that cost increase could give rise to prices. And the cost-propelled inflation theories which have prevailed again in the west since the 50s believe that inflation originates from the supply side or cost side of the economy instead of the demand side. Results of analyses indicate that interest rigidity of various economic departments and the cost-propelling mechanism constitute a dominant force leading to inflation in China; and money expansion is merely the result of continuous cost increase acted upon by interest rigidity. This 'propelling' theory can be divided into two parts, namely, 'salary propellant'and'profit propellant'. No given interest group can gain excess profits by using non-economic power in a market where competition is complete, thus being unable to incur cost-propelled inflation. In a market where competition is not complete, however, the trade union and a small number of monopolistic depart- ments can make growth of the income exceed that of productivity and economy, causing the above cost-propelled inflation. In China, there is no such a completely competition-dominated market and strong rigidity exists in both personal iconme and the revenue of some key departments. Such rigidity consists of two types with the first being the pressure of growing revenue of basic industries and the second being the rigidity that processing sector's revenue is not to be reduced. So, the continuous rise in value of primary products and the very existence of the rigidity in the revenue of various economic departments form the objective basis of cost-propelled inflation. Proceeding from a general survey of the inflation evolution process of recent years, this article renders a detailed positive analysis of China's cost-propelled inflation.