辽宁省参考作物腾发量的敏感性分析

Sensitive Analysis on Reference Evapotranspiration in Liaoning Province

通过FAO推荐的P-M公式计算辽宁省1954-2006年逐日参考作物腾发量（ET0），分析了ET0及主要气象要素的变化趋势，并通过敏感系数法分析了EL对气温、风速、相对湿度以及太阳辐射的敏感性，同时使用M—K趋势检验及克里金插值法探讨了敏感系数的时空变化特征。结果表明，近50年，辽宁地区平均气温呈极显著上升趋势（p〈0．01），风速、太阳辐射呈极显著下降趋势（p〈0．01），相对湿度呈下降趋势，但不显著（p=0．12）。多年平均ET0为2．38mm／d，在2．1～2．69mm／d内波动，以平均每10年0．017mm／d的速率减少。ET0对相对湿度最敏感，其次是太阳辐射，最后是温度和风速。4个主要气象要素的敏感系数具有非常明显的空间分布规律，研究区南、北部ET0对相对湿度的变化最敏感，东、西部ET0对太阳辐射的变化最敏感。

ETo was estimated using Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO from 1954 to 2006 in Liaoning province, the changes of ETo and key meteorological factors were analyzed, sensitivities of daily ET0 to temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation were calculated and tempo-spatial characteristics were discussed according to the trend test of M-K and kriging method. The results showed that temperature increased significantly （p〈0.01）, wind speed and solar radiation decreased significantly （p〈0.01）, and relative humidity decreased （p=0.12） from 1954 to 2006. Daily ETo fluctuated from 2.1 mm/d to 2.69 ram/d, the average was 2.38 mm/d, and the decrease rate was 0. 017 mm/（d · 10a）. Rela- tive humidity was the most sensitive factor to ET0, followed by solar radiation,wind speed and temperature. Sensitive coefficients of four main meteorological factors had obvious spatial distribution, ET0 was the most sensitive to the changes of relative humidity in the north and south of study area while ETo was the most sensitive to the changes of solar radiation in the east and west of study area.