新疆地区不同时间尺度旱涝时空分布及其变化规律的研究

Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of Drought and Waterlog in Different Time Scales in Sinkiang

基于新疆地区41个气象站1962—2003年的月降水资料,运用SPI与ARCGIS分析新疆地区不同时间尺度下旱涝的时空分布及其变化规律。结果表明,总体上新疆地区旱涝灾害频繁且交替出现,旱涝分布比较均匀,但不同时期发生不同程度旱涝的概率不同;新疆地区不同时期和不同程度的旱涝均具有明显的空间分布特征,且区域性较强;新疆地区同一时期同一程度旱涝的不同次的空间分布有所差异,并呈一定的交替变化特征;不同时期新疆绝大部分地区是增湿的,且增湿的速率空间变异性较强。

Using the monthly precipitation data of 41 meteorological stations in Sinkiang from 1962 to 2003, the spatiotemporal distribution and variation of drought and waterlog in different time scales in Sinkiang based on SP! and ARCGIS were analyzed. The results showed that the drought and waterlog in Sinkiang happened frequently and alternately, the occurrence of drought and waterlog were symmetrical to each other, but the probabilities of drought and waterlog happening in different periods and different degrees of drought and waterlog were different; The spatial distributions of drought and waterlog in the different periods and different degrees of drought and waterlog in Sinkiang was rather obvious and intense; The spatial distributions of different droughts and waterlogs in the same period and the same degrees of drought and waterlog were different and changed alternately on some extent; The most area of Sinkiang became more and more moist and the speeds changed intensively in spatial in the different periods.