基于生存分析模型的游客停留天数影响因素分析——以大连滨海旅游为例

A Survival Model Analysis on Factors Contributing to Tourists' Length of Stay in Dalian

游客的停留天数是影响旅游经济发展的一个重要因素。但是,由于停留天数变量特有的统计属性和复杂性,如数据删失和非负性,使得经济研究领域很少有学者系统地的研究这一问题。本文通过使用计量经济学的参数化生存分析模型分析游客停留天数的决定因素,这对旅游需求研究是一个很好的创新。在研究过程中,为了揭示影响游客停留天数的主要因素,本文考虑了多个关于游客的社会-人口统计特征等变量。结果显示,重复旅行的游客和距离较远的游客会停留较长的天数。因此,未来研究需要进一步分析具有这些特征的游客群体以及他们的经济状况和旅游活动特征等情况。游客的收入水平和年龄也对停留天数具有显著的影响。此外,游客受教育程度越高,停留天数越少。最后,本文分别分析了这些结果对旅游管理决策的含义。

Length of stay is one of the most important determinants of the overall impact of tourism in a given economy. However, due to its statistical nature and complexity such as censoring and non-negativity, it is rarely systematically analyzed in economic research literature. This article estimates an econometric parametric survival analysis model to learn the determinants of length of stay, in a novel way in the tourism demand literature. In the process, a number of tourist＇ s socio-demographic characteristics are analyzed in order to disclose the most impor- tant factors that can contribute to the length of tourist stays. Results indicate that being a repeat visitor and with far travel distance are important criteria to identify tourists who are likely to experience longer stays. Thus, future research should characterize such groups and their economic and activity involvement. Level of tourist income and age also play highly statistically significant role in determining length of stay. In addition, a higher degree of education is associated with shorter expected stays. Finally, all those findings＇ policy implications are addressed accordingly.