黄土高原退耕区农业后续产业发展影响因素的多层线性分析

Affecting Factors of Agriculture Follow-Up Industry in Plateau District:The Hierarchical Linear Analysis Based on the Household Survey Data of Ansai County

在安塞县农户调研数据的基础上,基于多层线性模型方法,从地块和家庭两个层次对发展农业后续产业的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明:地块特征和家庭特征虽然都可以用来解释农户发展后续产业行为,但是二者不宜等量齐观,其中地块特征起决定作用,而家庭特征对发展后续产业决策只具有间接影响;农户一般选择水利条件好、交通便利、面积较大的地块发展后续产业,且水利条件是首要考虑的因素,其重要性在各家庭之间变异不大;家庭层次特征变量通过影响地块层次特征变量对发展后续产业的决策发挥作用,从总体上加强了地块层次特征变量对该地块是否发展后续产业的影响程度。

How to promote agriculture follow-up industry has been widely concerned. The paper analysed affecting factors of agriculture follow-up industry from the land and the home two levels ,based on the hierarchical linear model and survey data of Ansai County. The research shows ：Although both land and household characteristics can be used to explain farm- ers＇ behavior,the two should not equate. Land characteristics play a decisive role ,but household only has an indirect im- pact. Famers generally select good irrigation conditions, convenient transportation, lager land to develop follow-up indus- try,of which irrigation conditions are the primary consideration, and its importance has little variation between fami- lies. Household characteristic variables play a role by influencing the development of follow-up industry based on the land level, and strengthens it as a whole.