贸易壁垒的消减和垂直专业化程度的提高对贸易增长的促进效应:来自中国的证据

The Effect of Diminishing Trade Barriers and Increasing Vertical Specialization on Trade Growth: Evidence from China

利用中国投入产出数据表及其他相关贸易数据,对垂直专业化水平的提高与贸易壁垒的降低对贸易增长的促进效应进行了比较和实证分析。实证分析结果表明,相对于贸易壁垒降低对中国贸易增长的促进效应而言,垂直专业化水平的提高对中国贸易增长的促进效应更加明显,且促进幅度更大。实证研究结论的一个重要启示是,随着WTO主导的多边贸易体制的不断成熟、完善和透明,以及全球贸易壁垒的存量逐渐减少,贸易壁垒的消除或降低在长期中对全球贸易增长的促进作用将失去其显著性。因此,垂直专业化将在相对较长的时间内充当促进全球贸易增长的重要角色。

Based on China＇s input and output data as well as other trade-related data, this paper makes a comparative and empirical analysis on the promotion effect of trade barrier reduction and vertical specialization increase upon trade growth. The empirical study shows that vertical specialization has a more positive effect on China＇s trade promotion than the reduction of trade barriers. The research conclusion indicates that trade barrier elimination and reduction would not promote the trade growth signifi- cantly in a long term due to the gradual maturity, improvement and transparency in multilateral trade system led by WTO. There- fore, vertical specialization would play a more important role in promoting the trade growth worldwide in a relatively long term.