北京城市生活垃圾产生量的影响因素研究及预测

Influence Factors and Prediction of MSW Output in Beijing

统计了北京市2003—2012年城市生活垃圾的产生量,借助SPSS对垃圾产生量可能的影响因素进行了分析,结果表明,垃圾产生量与该地区的人口数量、地区生产总值、人均消费性支出等因素密切相关。为了准确预测垃圾产生量,分别采用多元回归模型和灰色预测模型进行适用性分析,研究发现多元回归分析方法在本研究中的应用违背了"自变量之间互斥性"的原则,不适合产生量预测。运用灰色方法对原始数据通过级比检验、精度分析,确定了GM(1,1)建模的可行性,建立了北京市城市生活垃圾产生量的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,结果表明预测精度较高,应用此模型对北京市未来几年的城市生活垃圾产生量进行了预测。

The output of municipal solid waste （MSW） in Beijing from 2003 to 2012 was counted.And its influence factors were analyzed with SPSS.The results showed that the MSW production was closely related with the factors such as population,GDP,per capita consumption expenditure and so on.For predicting the MSW production accurately,multivariate regression model and gray forecast model were used to analyze the applicability.It showed that multiple regression analysis was not suitable to predict MSW output as it violated the principle of mutual exclusivity between the independent variables.The feasibility of GM（1,1） was confirmed through the level ratio test and accuracy analysis to the raw data with gray model.The GM （1,1） gray forecast model was built for MSW output in Beijing,and it showed an higher accuracy in prediction.Using the GM（1,1） model,the MSW output in the next few years for Beijing was predicted.