丝绸之路与中国西域安全--兼论中亚地区力量崛起的历史条件、规律及其因应战略

The Silk Road and the Security of China's Western Regions:Historical Conditions,Law and Our Countermeasures towards the Rise of Central Asia Powers

通往西域的丝绸之路以天山为界分南北两线。以喀什为外联枢纽的南疆线是西域稳定的关键线路。与北疆线地缘政治特点不同,此线不利于国家军事力量大规模机动,在历史上多是境外势力渗透并资助中国西域分裂势力的关键通道。欧亚大陆可容纳的古今战略力量,大体分欧洲、中亚和中国三部分,其两端若有任何一方衰落并由此造成战略力量的收缩,都会引发中亚战略力量在欧亚结合部即中亚地区的崛起和扩张。这样的变局一旦出现,它对中国西陲安全造成的压力当然是全方位的。目前,中国西域地缘政治环境在机遇和挑战两方面都有了向汉唐形势回归的趋势,8世纪出现在中国西陲的"大食"形势再次向中国西陲逼近,地区恐怖主义为争夺这个战略真空并由此对中国西陲造成的安全压力和危险必将同比增大。当前中国西域恐怖分裂主义事件日益向南疆喀什一线汇集的事实表明,它们已不是互不联系的偶发事件,而是有着在历史上被新疆分裂主义势力规律性地多次重复过的地缘战略取向。为了间离中俄关系,日本在诱导中国西进中亚,而东海则是中国安全的主要矛盾的主要方面。中国须未雨绸缪。

The Silk Road splits into the Northern and Southern Routes along the Tianshan Mountains.The Southern Route,with Kashi(Kashgar) as the hub of external connections,is key to the stability of China's Western Regions.Different from the geopolitical characteristics of the Northern Route,this route proved to be difficult to maneuver large-scale military forces,and turned to be a key route for foreign forces to channel and sponsor the separatist forces in the region.The Eurasian continent has accommodated three groups of powers in history,namely,Europe,Central Asia and China.The decline of any of these three will lead to the rise and expansion of the power(mainly Islamic forces) in Central Asia.If such a situation occurs,its pressure on the security of China's western frontiers is mounting.Now,the geopolitical environment of China's Western Regions in terms of opportunities and challenges indicates the regression to the situation in Han and Tang Dynasties.The situation that the Dashi(Arabs) put pressure on China' western borders in the 8' century is arising again and the terrorism in this region is struggling to fill the strategic vacuum,resulting in growing security pressure on China's western borders.At present,the terrorist attacks by separatists are increasingly converging along the Kashi route in south-western Xinjiang,and this fact suggests that these attacks are not unconnected and accidental.In fact,they exhibit the regular and repeated geostrategic orientation in history.In order to drive a wedge between China and Russia,Japan is diverting China into Central Asia whereas the East China Sea is China's major security issue.