经济走势、政策调控及其对企业竞争力的影响——基于中国行业面板数据的实证分析

The Influence of Economic Growth and Policy Adjustment on Enterprise Competitiveness——Empirical Analysis on China's Industrial Panel Data

"稳增长、调结构、促改革"是当前和今后相当长一段时期内中国政府调控经济的宏观政策取向,这为中国经济的平衡协调可持续发展提供了有利的政策环境,也是企业提高其自身核心竞争力的有力保障。本文着力于探讨经济增长走势和政府政策取向同企业竞争力的相关性和内在关系,从经济走势与政策应对的历史轨迹中追溯稳增长政策的政策思路渊源,分析政策调控对微观经济主体的直接或间接影响,并通过构建1998—2012年期间中国39个工业行业的面板数据模型,实证检验分析了经济增长态势及政府所实施的应对政策对企业竞争力的影响。分析结果表明:稳定的经济增长态势可以为企业提供较为有利的经营环境,减少企业对于未来不利冲击的风险成本,提高企业的经营绩效。偏紧性的财政政策和稳健的货币政策有利于减少企业对政府政策的依赖,抑制产能过剩现象,促使企业更加耐心地实施有利于提高自身核心竞争力的投资规划。对于竞争性产业,市场化程度越高对企业的发展越有利,市场的优胜劣汰和资源的有效配置可以引导企业进入良性循环的发展轨道。研究也发现,高技术产业的技术溢出并不明显,这表明在当前的结构调整中应当更加重视产业整体的技术升级和创新,全面提高产业素质,而不能过分企望于不同产业间比例的调整。

As a new government policy, steady growth, structural readjustment and promoting reform have offered a new opportunity for the balanced and sustainable development of economy in current China. Moreover, the policy ensures the enhancement of core competitiveness for the Chinese enterprises. Based on reviewing the development of China＇s economy and evolvement of influence of the referred policy on the mi policies, this paper analyzes the potential agents. By using the panel data of thirty-nine industries during the period of 1998--2012 in China, it builds an empirical model to analyze the influence of economic growth, c policies and structural readjustment on the enterprise competitiveness. The results show that： firstly, steady growth creates a stable and safe environment for the firms, decreases the risk reserve for addressing the adverse shock, improve the efficiency of the enterprises. Secondly, the contractionary fiscal policy and neutral monetary policy will help the firms to improve their competitiveness more patiently, lower the dependence on the government support and solve the overeapacity problem. Next, with the maturity of market mechanism, the positive behavior of microeconomic firms with autonomous decision-making will be more favorable to the development of enterprises. The fittest and effective allocations of resources of the market are also more likely to develop the enterprise into a benign cycle. Lastly, because of the unobvious spillover of high-tech industry, we should emphasize on the technological upgrading and transformation of the whole industry in the current structural readjustment.