中国城镇化进程中两极化倾向与规模格局重构

Polarization Trend and Optimization of Size Distribution in China's Urbanization Process

近年来,中国城镇化进程中出现了特大城市规模迅速膨胀、中小城市和小城镇相对萎缩的两极化倾向。论文采用系统数据深刻揭示了这种大城市偏向的两极化倾向,并从传统发展理念、资源配置偏向、市场极化效应、农民迁移意愿和政府调控失效等综合视角考察了其形成机理,探讨了重构城镇化规模格局的科学基础和战略选择。本文认为,当今中国社会正由城乡二元结构转变为由城乡之间、城镇之间、城市内部三重二元结构相互叠加的多元结构:考虑到资源环境承载能力、城镇人口吸纳能力、公共设施容量、农民迁移意愿和设市工作的恢复,未来中国特大城市、大城市、中小城市和建制镇吸纳新增城镇人口的比例由目前的36:8:9:47转变为30:18:18:34比较合适:提高城市规模等级的人口标准弊多利少,中国城市规模等级的划分应侧重增加层级,以巨型城市(1000万以上)、超大城市(400万-1000万)、特大城市(100万-400万)、大城市(50万-100万)、中等城市(20万-50万)和小城市(20万以下)6级为宜;实行多中心网络开发战略,积极培育壮大世界级、国家级和区域级城市群,推动形成全国三级城市群结构体系,使之成为中国推进城镇化的主体形态和吸纳新增城镇人口的主要载体;实行差别化的人口规模调控政策,严格控制400万人以上的特大城市人口规模,着力提高中小城市和小城镇综合承载能力,推动形成以城市群为主体形态,大中小城市和小城镇合理分工、协调发展、等级有序的城镇化规模格局。

There exists a polarization trend of big cities swiftly expanding and medium and small-sized cities relatively shrinking in China＇s urbanization process in recent years. The polarization trend of urban growth is revealed with use of systematic data, and it is thought that five strong forces including traditional ideas of development, unbalanced allocation of resources, polarization effect of market, migration willingness of population and ineffective population regulation, may facilitate the polarized distribution of cities. The article discusses the scientific basis and strategic approach for adjusting the disordered distribution of city size and indicates that the dual structure in China today has not only existed between city and countryside but also appears among cities and in urban internal, which means China is facing a multiple structure consisted of triple dual structures. In consideration of the carrying capability of environment and resources, the absorbing ability of labor, the capacity of public facilities, the migration willingness of population, and the restarting work of adding administration cities, the proportion of newly-increased urban population flowing toward mega city, big city, medium and small-sized city and designated towns could be adjusted from present 36：8：9：47 to an optimized 30：18：18：34. Confronted with the increasing urban scale, the article argues that, raising the population standard of urban scale hierarchy is not a good suggestion, and an alternative solution is to increase the number of ranks to 6 which includes giant city（more than I0 million）, super city（4 million to 10 million）, mega city（1 million to 4 million）, big city（500 thousand to 1 million）, medium-sized city （200 thousand to 500 thousand） and small city （less than 200 thousand）. China should carry out the polycentrie-network strategy of spatial development, make effort to foster world-level, country- level and region-level urban agglomerations, and make them be the backbone of urbanization and main carrier of absorbing newly-increased urban population. China should carry out the differentiated urban scale control policy, including to control the population of cities with more than 4 million residents strictly and upgrade the comprehensive carrying capability of medium and small-sized cities to make an ideal urban system with the backbone of urban agglomerations, the reasonable division of labors and the harmonious development among cities with different scales.