基于利润空间模型的保障房政策建议——以北京市为例

The Affordable Housing Policy based on Profit Margins Model——For Example in Beijing

本文从住房供需关系入手,以适宜房价收入比为约束,运用利润空间拟合供需函数,模拟房屋交易最优供给与价格,分析了北京市住房供应现状,并且核算了保障性住房受益群体的平均家庭总收入范围。以2013年的北京市保障房供应量,2011年的居住人口计算,若单依靠政府供应保障性住房,仅解决户籍内人口的住房问题就需要至少10年,若考虑暂住人口要全面解决住房问题需要时间至少翻一番,所以政府增加房屋的有效供给成为当下解决住房问题的关键。本文的建议是:北京市应大量供应保障性住房,暂时实施只租不售的住房政策,快速解决住房需求;在保障供给的前提下,为缓解资金压力,可逐步出售廉租房,出售价格可基于利润空间模型模拟,这样能有效防止出现大量"夹心层"。住房总供给量越高,廉租房的交易价格与商品房的交易价格差距越小,当二者相等时,政府无需再提供保障房,住房市场趋于稳定。

The thesis simulates the optimal supply and price of housing transaction using the function of Profit Margins Fitt-ing under the appropriate constraint of housing price income ratio, analyses the current situation of housing supply in Beijing, and calculate the total family average revenue range of benefitting group from affordable housing. The data is based on the supply of affordable housing in 2013 and residence population in 2011. If government supply were the only way to satisfy the demand of affordable housing, there were at least ten years to deal with the housing problem for registered population, if the government also considered temporary residence population and solved housing problem comprehensively, time should be doubled. Therefore, eff-ective supply of housing is the key to deal with housing problem nowadays. So, the conclusion is that, we need great amount sup-ply of affordable housing, temporarily implement the housing policy of ＆quot;only renting not selling＆quot; to solve the demand of housing rapidly. With the premise of guaranteeing supply, we can gradually sell the Low-rent housing to relieve the pressure of funding, which price can be simulated by Profit Margins Model, so as to avoid many ＆quot;In-Betweens＆quot;. The higher total amount of supply housing, the smaller transaction price gap between the Low-rent housing and the commercial housing, when the two equal to each other, government no need provide the affordable housing and the housing market becoming stability.