中国应抓住气候变化的战略机遇期

China should seize strategic opportunity in climate change

气候变化是世界关注的热点问题,中国是世界人口和农业大国,如何科学应对气候变化,趋利避害,把握重要机遇期,是关系中国复兴的重大课题。本文从地质时期气候变化、历史时期气候变化和近代气候变化3个方面,分析说明了气候变化取决于自然和人类活动状况,气候变化有冷暖交替周期,目前处于第四纪冰期的小暖期,进一步提出了要从太阳系、大气圈、岩石圈、水圈和生物圈不同层次的相互影响,来研究气候变化的思路。根据中国经济社会和农业发展与气候变化历史过程对比分析,中国粮食连续九连增,特别是东北粮食基地生产能力的快速提高,明显受益于气候变暖。提出了中国应抓住气候变化中的战略机遇期。目前我国粮食供需总体上仍处于紧平衡状态,"靠天吃饭"还没有根本改变,我国粮食呈北粮南运,北方又是干旱缺水和受气候变化影响敏感的地区,建议国家有关部门立项开展我国北方气候变化与水资源安全和粮食安全研究,以为保障我国粮食安全提供理论依据和技术支撑。

Climate change is today a hotly debated issue in the world. China is the biggest country in the world in terms of population and agriculture. How exactly to scientifically cope with climate change, draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages of climate change, and seize strategic opportunity in climate change has been a critical project for revival of China. In this paper, we analyzed and explained the natural and anthropogenic factors of climate change on geological and history and modern time scales. Climate change has had alternate cooling and warming cycles and was currently in the mind warming cycle of quaternary glaciation. It was also suggested to redirect climate change research to include mutual effects from the solar system to the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere. Comparison of changes in economy, society, agriculture and climate showed that China’s total grain yield increased in recent nine years. This was especially the case for grain production in the Northwest China, which benefited remarkably from warming climate change. It was thus suggested that China seized strategic opportunity in climate change. Because food supply and demand in China was currently in meager balance, China has depended on heavens for food. In spite of the fact that the north is dry with worsening water shorting and sensitive to climate change, more food has been transferred from north to south China. It was therefore suggested that the Chinese government set up projects for studying climate change, water resources security and food security in the north China. The study laid the theoretical basis and technical support for ensuring food security in China.