基于价值-风险双准则的风险决策理论

A New Risk Decision-making Theory:Based on Value and Risk

风险决策问题一直是管理学、心理学和经济学十分关注的重要研究领域。本文对重要的风险决策理论进行回顾,根据已有的研究成果,分析并提出本文研究的理论基础:多重参照点、风险认知和决策多准则。本文将个体决策的参照点归纳为期望参照点和厌恶参照点,并将风险界定为决策事件的未来可能状态与期望参照点发生负偏离的综合,即价值的负偏离和概率的负偏离。在此基础上,论文提出了价值最大化-风险最小化双准则的风险决策理论,给出风险测算方法,及基于期望价值和风险的综合决策值公式。最后,应用该决策理论对经典决策悖论进行了消解,并应用典型的决策实验数据对理论进行验证,结果表明本文所提出的风险决策理论具有很强的解释性。

Risk decision-making is an important research field of management, psychology and economics. By reviewing and analyzing the classical risk decision-making theories, multiple reference points, risk per- ception and multi-criteria decision-making are poposed as the theoretical basis. Then, the reference points in decision-making are categorized as expected reference point and disgusting reference point, and risk is defined as the negative deviation between the future state of decision incidents and the expectation refer- ence point. In the light of the above, a risk decision-making theory based on value maximization and risk minimization, together with risk evaluation method and an integrated decision model based on expectation value and risk, is developed in this paper. Finally, the decision theory is tested on classical decision-mak- ing paradoxes and some decision-making examples. And the testing results prove the proposed risk deci- sion-making theory is strongly explanatory to risk decision-making.