基于指标分类的石油海外投资环境评价模型的应用及启示——以南美洲为例

在对指标体系进行定性和定量分类的基础上,综合运用层次分析法和聚类分析法评价南美洲资源国石油投资环境。研究发现,把指标体系进行定性和定量分类,可以更好地优化综合评价流程,突出不同指标的政策含义。对南美洲的实例研究表明,委内瑞拉和巴西是石油投资环境最优的国家,应采取持续稳健的投资策略;阿根廷、玻利维亚、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔四个国家可以作为投资目标备选国家,但要注意防范政治和法律风险;南美洲国家整体上政治法律环境不好,应建立动态监测体系,采取"短、平、快"的投资模式。

Based on the qualitative and quantitative classifications of the index system, this paper applies Analytic Hierarchy Process and Cluster Analysis respectively to evaluate oil investment environment of South America. The conclusion shows that the index system classification can better optimize the evaluation process and highlight the policy implications of different indicators. Case study of South America shows that Venezuela＇ s and Brazil＇ s oil investment environments are the best, so sustainable and steady investment strategies should be taken in those two countries. Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Columbia can be seen as alternative investment objectives, but political and legal risks should be taken into serious consideration. South American countries＇ political and legal environments are not good on the whole, so Chinese oil companies should establish a dynamic monitoring system and adopt an investment mode of quick returns in the area.