“丝绸之路”经济带交通基础设施建设对区域贸易的影响

在建设"丝绸之路"经济带的宏观背景下,本文根据动态计量经济学的协整理论,通过构建VAR模型,对1992年到2012年"丝绸之路"经济带的交通基础设施建设和中国与中亚国家贸易增长之间的关系进行了平稳性检验、方差分解分析及协整检验。研究结果表明,"丝绸之路"经济带的交通基础设施建设与中国同中亚国家贸易增长存在长期的均衡关系,交通基础设施建设不仅能够对经济带的贸易繁荣起到促进作用,而且作用时间持久且贡献度逐年增加,因此有必要加大对"丝绸之路"经济带的交通基础设施投资。

In the context of building the New Silk Road, this paper uses cointegration methods, constructs VAR model and tests the relationship between the investment of transport infrastructure and the trade value of China - Central Asia. The results show that there is a longterm stability equilibrium relationship between transport infrastructure investment and the volume of trade. The improvement of transportation promotes the level of China - Central Asia trades in the long term, and the impact ascends year by year, so it is necessary to increase the transport infrastructure construction of the New Silk Road.