基于粗糙集-数据包络分析的公路交通发展有效性评价

Rough set-data envelopment analysis based highway development effectiveness evaluation

选取12个客观指标构建了公路交通可持续发展评价分析指标体系。首先运用粗糙集属性约简理论对所构建的指标体系进行约简,去掉其中的冗余指标,然后运用数据包络分析中的C2R模型和BC2模型对全国31个省市的公路交通发展状况进行评价,从规模和技术上分别对公路交通的发展状况进行了分析。结果表明,只有11个省市是规模和技术整体有效的,其中绝大多数省市的规模收益处于递减状态,说明我国公路交通的可持续发展效率不高,特别是规模效益不高。在以后公路交通的发展过程中,不仅要提高公路网的利用效率,还要注重并加强技术的引进与应用。

We select 12 objective indexes to construct an index system of evaluation and analysis ot highway traffic development.We initially employ the attribute reduction theory of a rough set to reduce the index system,removing its redundancy index.Models C2R and BC2 of data envelopment analysis （DEA） are then applied to the evaluation for 31 provincial and municipal highway development.We analyze their highway traffic development from scale and technology.Results show that only 11 provinces and cities are effective in scale and technology.Most of them are in progressive decrease of scale and technology.This shows that national sustainable development efficiency of highway traffic is not high,especially for scale efficiency.We not only improve utilization efficiency of domestic highway network,but also highlight the introduction and application of technology in future highway traffic development.