公共事件中网络谣言传播实证分析——基于2010～2012年间网络谣言信息的研究

An Empirical Analysis of Online Rumors in Public Events——Based on the Data of Online Rumors from 2010 to 2012

本文基于2010～2012年间社会影响较大的公共事件及其中出现的网络谣言信息,对网络谣言传播现象中的谣言生成机制、传播机制、干预机制等进行实证分析,研究发现,网络谣言对舆情持续时间的增长影响有限,但对提升媒体和网民关注度作用较大;某些特定类型的公共事件中谣言传播更易发生,应当提前做好预警与研判;现代网络谣言传播公式与传统经典模式略有差异;复杂传播环境下,网络中流通信息的真实性对管理部门公信力带来更大挑战,应鼓励社会力量参与辟谣,增强辟谣传播效果。

Based on the data of public events which have a greater impact on the society and the online rumors from 2010 to 2012, this paper analyzed the mechanism of the generation, transmission and intervention of the rumors. It was found that online rumors had limited impact on the duration of public opinion, but had a great effect on the attention of the media and netizens. It was also revealed that rumors were more likely to spread in certain types of public events. Therefore, judgments and warnings should be made well in advance~ there are slight differences between the spreading formulas of modern online rumors and classic models; under complex communication environment, the authenticity of information poses a greater challenge to the credibility of administration. The government should encourage social forces to participate in refuting rumors, in order to enhance the effect of communication.