华北地区中强以上地震与前兆震群的相关分析

Correlation analysis between precursory cluster of seismic events and moderate or large earthquake in North China

应用“八五”攻关推广的有关震群参数计算的软件 ,对华北地区 (33°～ 43°N,1 1 4°～ 1 2 4°E)自 1 970年以来所发生的 40次震群事件的各项参数 (b,U,H,K,F,ρ等值 )进行了计算 ,旨在依据前兆震群的判定指标 ,寻找前兆震群与中强以上地震 (MS≥ 434)的对应关系。结果表明 ,无论是单项指标或综合指标的报准率均在 65%左右 ,仅有个别达到 75%以上 ,并且有约30 %具有前兆意义的震群属于漏报和虚报。所以 ,如何判定前兆震群和充分利用前兆震群预报地震和监视未来地震活动有待更深入的研究和探讨。

By using the software for calculating the parameters of clusters of seismic events,which is popularized by the surmounting technical difficulty item in 'the eighth five years',the all parameters( b,U,H,K,F,ρ value etc)of 40 clusters of seismic events that have occurred since 1970 in north China(the region is 33°～43° N,114°～124° E)have been calculated.According to the indices for determining precursory clustering earthquake,the purpose of this research is to seek the corresponding relationship between the precursory cluster of seismic events and moderate or large earthquake( M S≥434).The results is as follow:by using a single judging index or a synthetic judging index,the rate of accurate alarm is always about 65%,and only very few indices are up to 75%,and 30% of the clusters of seismic event which have the precursor meaning belong to the false alarm and failure alarm.So,how to determine precursory clustering earthquake and how to fully utilize it to forecast earthquake and to monitor earthquake activity need to be deep studied and probed.