基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的水库移民风险评价

Risk evaluation of reservoir resettlement based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

影响水库移民安置工程的风险因素众多,为了对水库移民风险作出准确评价,针对水库移民风险因素普遍具有的不确定性与模糊性等特征,从社会、经济、政治、环境4个方面构造了水库移民风险评价指标体系,分别利用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法确定评价指标的权重和评价矩阵,构造AHP-模糊综合评价模型。通过具体实例分析验证了此方法的实用性和有效性,结果表明该模型能够准确判断水库移民安置方案的风险等级。

Reservoir resettlement may be affected by numerous risk factors. In order to make an accurate risk evaluation for re-settlement, in view of the distribution rule and characteristics of uncertainty and fuzziness of risk factors, a risk evaluation index system of reservoir resettlement is constructed from the four aspects of society, economy, politics and environment. In particular, evaluation index weights and evaluation matrix are obtained by AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and its model is also estab-lished. The practicability and reliability of the model is proved by case analysis and the result shows that the model can accurately determine the risk level of reservoir resettlement.