投资效率与全要素生产率的变化趋势考察——基于中国经济特区的差异比较分析

Trends of Investment Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity:Based on Comparative Analysis of Differences Among China's Special Economic Zones

过度投资导致了资源使用效率下降,成为中国经济增长率下降的主要原因。鉴于对全国整体的分析忽略了区域发展不平衡这一结构性问题,本文5个经济特区作为实证对象,从资本密度和全要素生产率变化两个方面对投资效率进行分解,并对这两项因素之间的关系加以验证。结果显示:(1)改革开放初期,大量投资短暂降低了投资效率,但由于制度红利释放的增长效应大幅提高了TFP水平,投资效率随之提高;(2)不同发展场景中的投资效率演变特征有所不同,不应全盘否定投资的积极意义;(3)TFP变化与资本密度变化之间的关系在全国层面体现为倒U形曲线,在区域层面却可能体现为正U形曲线;(4)持续的经济增长在根本上依赖于TFP水平提高,为此需要通过深化改革,在保证经济运行效率的前提下提高技术创新水平。

Excessive investment has led to a decline in the efficiency of resource use. For the analysis of the country as a whole always ignores the structural problems of unbalanced regional development, in this paper we choose five special economic zones as empirical objects, and we decompose efficiency of investment from two aspects which include capital intensity and total factor productivity＇s changing. In the end we test and verify the relationship between these factors, and the result shows that： （1） Intensive investments decrease the efficiency of investment in a short period, while TFP is increasing by institutional bonus, so the comprehensive investment efficiency is increasing totally. （2） In different development scenarios, the evolution characteristics of investment efficiency are also different, so we should not negate the positive significance of investment. （3） The relationship between TFP＇s changing and capital intensity＇s changing reflected as an inverted U-shaped curve in the whole country, but may be reflected as a U-shaped curve at the regional level. （4） Sustained economic growth depends on the increase of TFP level, so it is essential to raise the level of technological innovation by means of deepning reform while ensuring economic efficiency.