区域经济周期协同性及其与国家经济周期的关系研究

China's Regional Business Cycles and Their Synergy with the National Business Cycle

从区域层面探寻经济周期特征和规律,对深入理解和把握区域与国家层面的经济运行规律,提高宏观调控政策的有效性具有重要意义。本文选取我国1978—2009年间的经济数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移模型,研究了中国区域经济周期的阶段性变化以及区域与国家间经济周期的联系。研究结果表明,中国区域周期和国家周期都在1993年前后呈现显著的结构性变化,区域经济周期差异性明显,区域与国家间经济周期协同性较高,且在突变点后中西部区域的协同性比较接近,而东部区域的协同性差异较大。有鉴于此,只有从国家层面建立充分反映区域经济特点的宏观政策体系以及发挥宏观政策的结构性功能,才能提高宏观经济政策的效果并缩小区域间宏观经济政策的不对称性。

Exploring business cycle characteristics from regional perspective has important implications for better understanding the regional and national economic performances, and further enhancing the effectiveness of macro-control policy. This paper uses a Markov-switching model with a structural break to investigate China＇s regional business cycle phases and their relation to the national business cycle, with the economic data covering the period of 1978--2009. The results show that the regional cycles have an early--1990s structural break as well as the national cycle, and the regional cycles are significantly different while their synergy to the national cycle is strong. We also find that during the post-break period the synergy of the central and western regions are relatively strong, while the synergy of the eastern regions is quite different.