摘要
简要介绍了 1 999年 1 1月 2 9日辽宁岫岩 MS5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析 ,确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律 ,判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析 。
In this paper, the basic idea and the main evidence for the successful prediction of Xiuyan earthquake with M S 5.4 on Nov.29, 1999 in Liaoning province are briefly introduced. It is determined that the southern Liaoning province is dangerous area of the coming earthquake, based on the analysis of the seismic risk for the medium and short term of pre earthquake in southern Liaoning province. On the basis of the provincial characteristics of seismicity and the law of the swarm activity at Xiuyan, the foreshocks characteristics of the Xiuyan swarm is determined. Making use of the numerical results of the seismicity parameters and the statistical analysis of the short term and imminent precursor phenomenon in epicenter and its neighboring region, the basic foundation of prediction of three elements prior to the earthquake is further discussed.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第1期78-84,共7页
Earthquake
关键词
临震预报
地震序列
震群
岫岩地震
地震活动
前震
震源机制
The short term and imminent prediction
Earthquake sequence
Earthquake swarm
Xiuyan earthquake
