基于货币经济宏观模型的有效需求与经济波动分析

Effective Demand and Economy Fluctuation Analysis Based on a Macro-Economic Model of Monetary Economy

经验事实表明,以纯粹技术分析为基础的新古典宏观模型难以解释现实的经济运行。本文构建了一个同时考虑流量与存量的货币经济宏观模型,并尝试用该模型来分析我国的有效需求不足引发的经济波动现象。实证分析,结果表明:目前我国的有效需求不足问题仅仅强调消费是不够的,只有从企业成本收益出发,分析作为市场供给方(企业)的成本结构随投资流量的变化情况,以及随之出现的有效需求问题,才能解释我国的经济波动现象。

Empirical facts show that, based on pure technical analysis, the neo-classical macro- economic model is difficult to explain the reality of the economy. Taking the flow and stock into ac- count, we build a macro-economic model of monetary economy and try to use the model to analyze the economic fluctuation in China triggered by the lack of effective demand. Confirmed by empirical analysis of macroeconomic data for the years 1991-2011, the research argues that emphasizing the consuming only is not enough, and enterprises cost--benefit analysis is necessary. Only through the analysis of the cost structure of the supply side （enterprises） with the changes in investment flows and the accompanying income distribution problems, can we explain the insufficient effective de- mand and fluctuation in China＇s economy.