美元无限供给弹性下的经济政策选择

Economic Policy Choices with Dollar Infinite Elasticity of Supply

相对封闭经济而言,开放经济的政策环境是一种复杂环境。本文在放弃国际收支平衡目标前提下,直接引用扩展的IS-LM开放宏观经济扩展模型,通过分析开放的宏观经济政策效应,重点探讨美元无限供给弹性下的经济政策效应,旨在揭示财政政策与货币政策效应的复杂性及其政策选择风险。本文以我国1997-2011年的季度数据为样本,从实证分析的角度对我国加入WTO前后两个阶段的宏观经济政策效应及其政策选择风险进行了经验验证。结果表明:我国加入WTO前后两个阶段的宏观经济政策效应及其政策选择风险发生了本质的变化,现阶段的状况基本与理论分析结论相一致。

Compared with closed economy, the policy environment of open economy is a complex one. This article gives up the international balance of payments targets, and refers to the extended IS-LM open macroeconomic growth model directly. On the basis of the analysis on the effects of open macroeconomic policy, focusing on the dollar infinite supply elasticity effect of economic poli- cy, the paper reveals the complexity of the effects on fiscal policy and monetary policy and the risk of policy choices, and then uses China＇s 1997--2011 year quarterly data as the sample, empirically validates from the perspective of empirical analysis on the effects of the macroeconomic policies of the two phases-before and after China＇s accession to the WTO, and its policy choices risk. The results show that： the effects of macroeconomic policies and the risk of policy choices of the two stages- before and after China＇s accession to the WTO changed in nature. The current situation is basically consistent with the theoretical conclusions.