房地产价格波动与货币政策调控——基于DSGE模型数值模拟分析

China's Real Estate Market Price Fluctuation and the Monetary Policy Based on the Numerical Simulation of the DSGE Model Analysis

基于新凯恩斯主义分析框架下,本文构造了两个包含多个经济主体的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)分析显示:消费、投资、通货膨胀和房地产价格均具有顺周期特征,并且与产出的相关性较高,说明投资、消费、通货膨胀、房地产价格与产出保持高度一致,符合实际经济的特点;同时,鉴于房地产价格波动的模拟可以更好地预测实际经济,考虑房地产价格波动的模型中各变量的脉冲响应值均显著低于不考虑房地产价格波动的模型中各变量的脉冲响应值,故货币政策对房地产价格波动作出反应能有效降低产出和通货膨胀的波动,以减少社会福利损失。

This Paper builds two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） models inclu- ding many economics entities based on the New Keynesian analysis of the basic framework . It shows that consumption , investment ,inflation and real estate price have pro-cyclical characteristic , and higher correlation with output ,in line with the characteristic of the real economy. Meanwhile, the economic simulation with the real estate fluctuation can be used to predict the actual economy, and the impulse response values with the real estate price fluctuation are significantly lower than those without the real estate price fluctuation. The monetary policy reacting on the real estate price can reduce output and inflation volatility , reduce the loss of social welfare.