基于S形曲线的汽车保有量预测模型及其应用研究

Research of Forecast Model and its Application of Automotive Ownership Quantity based on S-curve

分析了汽车保有量发展呈S形曲线的特点,以及影响汽车保有量的主要变量.以S形曲线为基础建立了汽车保有量预测的对数模型.用1991 ～2011年的样本数据计算出模型系数.通过输入相关变量的估计值,对2015年、2020年我国汽车保有量进行预测.

The S-curve of automotive ownership quantity change and the main variables which affect automotive ownership quantity are analyzed. The logarithmic model of automotive ownership quantity forecasting is built based on S-curve. Model coefficient is calculated by using sample data of 1991-2011. By inputting variables predicted value, automotive ownership quantity of 2015 and 2020 is forecasted.