R&D网络风险相继传播模型构建及仿真

Risk cascading propagation modeling and simulation in R&D network

基于风险矩阵和风险来源两个维度识别出R&D网络的不同风险类型.从节点风险负荷、风险阈值和失效节点如何影响邻居节点三个方面入手,构建了R&D网络风险相继传播的动力学模型,并对该理论模型进行了仿真.仿真结果发现风险相继传播过程可在短时间内迅速完成,R&D网络的抗风险能力与各节点企业风险阈值分布的平均程度正相关,而与网络平均度无关,外源性风险比内源性风险对网络的破坏力更大,度大袭击与随机袭击比度小袭击更易于导致网络崩溃.该研究成果对提高R&D网络的抗风险能力、保持其健康持续发展具有重要启示.

This paper identifies different types of risks in R＆D network from the two dimensions of risk matrix and risk source. Then it establishes and simulates the dynamic model of risk cascading propagation in R＆D network with the definition of risk load, determination of risk threshold and how failed nodes affect neighboring nodes. The simulation results show the risk cascading propagation process can be over rapidly in a very short time; the capability of resisting risk has the positive correlation with the average distribution degree of all nodes＇ risk thresholds, and has nothing to do with the average degree of network; outer risks can cause more damages to Rg：D network than ironer risks; highest-degree attack and random attack can lead to the collapse of R＆D network more easily than lowest-degree attack. This research has an important enlightenment for improving the capability of resisting risk and keeping the sustainable development of R＆D network.