基于灰色模型的煤矿涌水量预测研究

Coalmine Water Inflow Prediction Based on Grey System Model

孟加拉巴拉普库利亚煤矿位于孟加拉国西北部,为一独立的半断陷冈瓦纳群含煤盆地。该矿主采的Ⅵ煤层为特厚煤层,煤层均厚36m。受矿井水文地质条件等因素影响,目前仅在南翼采区进行开采。根据煤矿Ⅵ煤一分层开采2000-2012年的涌水量实测资料,建立灰色理论模型并进行模型精度检验。在此基础上,利用灰色理论的预测方法,基于Matlab软件编程计算,对2013-2018年的矿井涌水量动态变化进行预测,并将模型预测值与实测资料进行对比。结果表明,所建立的灰色系统模型具有可靠性和适用性,涌水量预测成果可为矿井排水系统的设计提供依据。

The Barapukuria coalmine is situated in an unattached semi-faulted Gondwana Group coal-bearing basin, northwestern Ban-gladesh. Main mineable coal VI is an extremely thick coal seam with average thickness 36m. Because of limited by hydrogeological con-ditions, only the south wing of the coalmine is exploiting at present. Based on measured water inflow data of coal VI first layer during 2000~2012, have modeled grey system model [GM （1, 1）] and carried out accuracy test for model. On this basis, using grey system theo-ry prediction method, based on Matlab software carried out programming computation, predicted 2013~2018 coalmine water inflow dy-namic changes, and contrasted model prediction data with measured data. The result has shown that the model is reliable and applica-ble, predicted results can provide basis for design of mine drainage system.