国际石油价格与我国经济增长的非对称性关系研究

Asymmetric Relationship of International Oil Prices and Economic Growth in China

本文从短期和长期两个角度出发,分析了国际油价冲击与我国经济增长之间的相互关系。研究结果表明,在短期,国际油价的变化会影响我国的经济增长,但这种因果关系是单向的;在长期关系探讨中,我们引入了非对称协整模型,发现传统的分析方法存在误差,通过进一步分析,文章确认了在国际油价与我国宏观经济的长期关系上存在非对称性,正向冲击与负向冲击在长期均衡中的作用相异,油价上涨对经济的影响程度远远高于油价下跌时的影响。

In this paper, we explore the relationship between international oil price shocks and economic growth in China for both the short-run and long-run. It shows that the changes in international oil priceshave significantimpact on economic growth in the short-run and this relationship is only one directional. There exists an asymmetric long-run relation- ship. The asymmetric cointegration analysis shows that the impact of crude oil prices toChina＇s economic growth is stronger when oil prices increase.