面向工程建设决策的移动话务量预测研究

TELETRAFFIC PREDICTION MODELS FACING DECISION MAKING OF CONSTRUCTION

随着通信网应用和规模的不断增加,新一代的网络建设规模对业务量的预测也提出了新的需求,其中通信话务量的预测分析已经成为其中非常重要的一部分。准确的话务量预测对网络管理、规划和设计具有重要意义。文章旨在对移动网络中的话务量随时间或事件变化的特性进行分析研究,建立合理科学的话务模型,并采用综合的预测方法进行预测研究。从而辅助通信运营商实时把握用户的行为习惯和话务量的发展趋势,并进行合理决策和投资。

With the increase of the applications and size of the communication networks, the new generation of network management system for predicting business has made new demands, in which communication traffic forecasting has become one of the most important parts. Accurate traffic forecast for network management, planning, design is of great significance. This paper aims at the research of the character of traffic in mobile networks under different situation or time, also to establish a scientific and reasonable traffic model, and make prediction of future traffic using combined methods. Telecommunications operators may grasp the real-time user behavior, traffic trend of development and carry out rational decision-making and investment.