汽车产业集群供应链种群生态系统的模拟与仿真

Simulation of Species Population System of Supply Chain of Automobile Industrial Cluster

近年来中国汽车产业集群供应链体系发展日趋完善,反映出一定的类生物自调节性质,有必要从种群生态学角度对此展开研究。拟借鉴捕食者-食饵(寄主—寄生)理论,以Volterra模型为基础构建了三企业种群模型,仿真结果显示数值解图呈周期性变化,整个集群供应链体系趋于稳定发展。加强政府引导,合理分配资源及空间,在有效避免集群供应商恶性竞争的同时,可以推进集群供应链的整体稳定发展。

By referring to the predator -prey （ host-parasitism ） theory , a three-enterprise species system was built based on Volterra model .The simulation results show that a periodic change is displayed on the numerical calculation chart , which demonstrates that the supply chain tends to develop steadily .It is accordingly proposed that governments should strengthen its guidance and reasonably allocate resources and space so as to prevent vicious competition .