流动人口初职时间间隔及其影响因素的性别差异——基于生存分析的视角

Event History Analysis of the Gender Differences of Migrants' Duration of the First Job and its Determinants:Case Studies of Fujian Province

基于福建省2977个流动人口职业流动的个体历时数据,应用Kaplan-Meyer方法和Cox比例风险模型方法,对不同性别流动人口的初职时间间隔及其影响因素的异同进行分析。研究发现,与男性流动人口相比,女性流动人口离开初职的概率略小,但在初职的时间间隔偏短。在初职时间间隔的影响因素中,初职收入、教育年限、婚姻状态、家庭迁移类型和流入地城镇等级规模的影响存在性别共性,而家庭抚养比、职业类型、企业性质和来源地类型的影响存在性别差异。

Based on the individual event-history data from a representative survey of 2977 migrants in Fujian Province, this paper examines the differences in occupational mobility and its determinants between male and female migrants by employing Kaplan-Meier and Cox＇s Proportional Hazard Model. The results show that compared to male migrants, the rate of quitting the first job for female migrants is lower, but the duration of the first job for female migrants is much shorter, and there is no obvious gender difference in the survival rate of the first job. The determinants of the duration of first-job such as income of first job, education years, marriage status, type of family migration and the type of the immigration area are effective to both female and male migrants, while the factors such as the dependency ratio of the family, type of occupation and type of enterprises have significant effects only on the female migrants, while the type of original region only affects the male migrants.