新凯恩斯主义视域下中国近十年货币政策轨迹

The Tract of Monetary Policy in China in the Last Decade:A New Keynesian Perspective

基于开放经济新凯恩斯主义货币政策动态随机一般均衡模型的新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线、动态IS曲线、新凯恩斯主义工资菲利普斯曲线,考察了不同货币政策机制对中国近十年货币政策轨迹的拟合度。通过全样本预测,发现混合规则对于中国近十年的产出缺口具有最佳的拟合度,单一的价格规则或数量规则均无法较好地拟合中国现实数据;二阶矩匹配的结果进一步证实了这一论断。

Based on the open economy New Keynesian monetary policy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework, this paper estimates the New Keynesian Phillips curve, dynamic IS curve, New Keynesian wage Phillips curve in different monetary policy regimes. The result of the Bayesian full sample forecast shows that the composite rule fits the quarterly data of output gap from 2001 to 2012 better than price rule and quantity rule. Meanwhile, the result of matching of second-order moments demonstrates the conclusion of the Bayesian forecasting.