哈密地区气象干旱监测指数研究

Research on Meteorological Drought Monitoring Index in Hami

应用Z指数方法和帕默尔气象干旱指数基本原理的优点,选取哈密地区6个代表站1961—2010年逐月降水量资料,分南、北两个区域建立区域修正帕默尔气象干旱指数,确定了区域旱涝等级的划分标准。以计算得到的干旱指数与历史旱情记录进行对比验证,并与Z指数、降水距平百分率干旱指数对比分析,结果表明该干旱指数对干旱的反应符合历史实际,较Z指数、降水距平百分率干旱指数更适合当地应用。在此基础上,对哈密地区修正帕默尔气象干旱指数与旱情的关系及干旱发生的特征作了更进一步分析。

The modified regional Palmer indexes of drought monitoring for south and north part of Hami were established based on the principle of Z index and Palmer index, the monthly precipitation data of six representative stations in Hami （1961-2010）. The standard for regional drought grades were also determined. Comparing the computed drought index with the recorded historical drought, and drought index of precipitation anomaly percentage and Z index, the result showed the modified Palmer drought index can reflect the meteorological drought in Hami better and has more advantages and was more suitable for the local operation than the drought index of precipitation anomaly percentage and Z index. Furthermore,the relationship between modified Palmer index for drought monitoring and drought situation as well as the drought characteristics in Hami were analyzed.