基于小波分析的典型干旱草原区降水特征研究

Study on Characteristics of Precipitation in Typical Arid Grassland Based on Wavelet Analysis

利用内蒙古包头市达茂旗1954～2012年的降水量资料，采用线性回归分析、5a滑动平均和Morlet小波分析对降水量的特征进行了研究。结果表明，达茂旗59年来降水量呈波动状态，没有明显的上升和下降趋势；小波分析表明年降水存在着28a、17a和6a的周期，其中28a周期为主周期，以主周期进行预测可知未来2～5年降水偏多。

With the linear regression method,5-year moving average method and Morlet wavelet analysis,the general characteristics of precipita- tion were analyzed according to the data from 1954 to 2012 of Damao County. The results showed that the precipitation of Damao County in the past 59 years appeared fluctuation tendency. The wavelet analysis results showed that there are main periods of 28 years, 17 years and 6 years of which the 28-year period is the first order main period in this area. According to the first order main period ,there will be a state of more precipita- tion in the coming 2-5 years.