城镇化背景下“增减挂钩”的农村居民点整理现实潜力估算

Estimation of Realistic Potential of Land Consolidation in Rural Residential Areas Based on the Linked Change of Rural-urban Construction Land

对农村居民点整理的现实潜力进行合理的评估，是指导农村居民点整理及落实增减挂钩政策的重要步骤。该研究以东乡县为例，建立农村居民点整理潜力模型，从自然因素、整理需求和整理能力3个方面选取地形、交通条件、地方财政收入等8个指标，构建综合评价指标体系，计算综合修正系数，求取全县农村居民点整理的现实潜力。结果表明：东乡县各乡镇综合修正系数介于0．220～0．881；2020年农村居民点整理现实潜力为1066．78hm2。研究认为，农村居民点整理顺序，应按照现实潜力的大小在时空上进行合理安排。

The reasonable and effective evaluation of realistic potential of land consolidation is an important step for guiding local of land consoli- dation in rural residential areas. Taking Dongxiang County as an example, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established by 8 indexes about land consolidation demand, land consolidation ability and natural conditions to calculate the realistic potential of land consolidation in rural residential areas. The results showed that the correction coefficient of each villages and towns are between 0.220-0. 881 in Dongxiang County; the realistic potential of the rural residential areas are 1 066.78 hm2 in 2020. In the research, the arrangement of the land consolidation in rural residential areas should accord to the realistic potential in time and space.