基于BP神经网络的黄河中下游人口预测研究

Study on Population Prediction of the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River based on BP Neural Network

区域人口增长是一个高度非线性的系统问题,影响广泛,准确预测人口对政府制定经济和社会发展计划具有重要参考意义。BP网络能主动学习和存贮大量复杂的映射关系,而无需事前揭示描述这种映射关系的数学方程。采用BP神经网络建立预测模型,根据2001—2011年黄河中下游人口统计数据,通过Matlab软件作出预测,然后对预测结果进行拟合度分析,结果表明BP神经网络对人口数量的预测准确度极高。

Regional population growth is a highly nonlinear system which causes a wide - ranging impact. The accurate population prediction has important reference significance for government to make economic and social development plan. BP network can learn actively, store a large amount of complex mapping relationship, and describe the mapping relationship without prior to reveal the mathematical equations, this paper uses the BP neural network to establish the prediction model, makes the prediction by Matlab software ac,zording to statistical data about the population in the downstream Yellow River from 2001 to 2011, then analysises the fitting degree on the prediction results, the result indicates that BP neural network has highly accurate to predict the population.