我国普通高等教育规模的预测与潜力分析

On the Future Scale and the Potentials of China' Higher Education

基于1977-2011年全国高考报名人数、录取人数、人均GDP等数据,根据经济增长与普通高等教育规模(录取人数)的相关关系,运用曲线估计的方法对我国普通高等教育规模进行预测。根据2005年至2011年的高校报名人数、录取人数、应届高中毕业生人数等数据,运用Mingat Alain和Jeepeng Tan提出的ED(高等教育潜在规模公式)分析当前我国普通高等教育的潜在规模,发现普通高等教育实际规模尚未达到潜在规模。同时,基于明瑟收益率的视角,分析在普通高等教育尚未达到潜在规模,保持公办普通高校本科招生规模相对稳定的深层意义。

In 1977, the college entrance examination system was restored and the admission rate was 4.8%. Since 1999 when Chinese college enrollment expanded, the Chinese universities has grown rapidly in size. In 2012, the Ministry of Education issued ＂ Guidelines for the Improvement quality in Higher education＂ and pointed out the scale of general higher education should be stabilized. Based on 1977-2011 national college entrance examination enrollments, admission number, per capita GDP and other data, and according to the economic growth and higher education scale correlation, this paper uses of curve estimation method to predict the scale of Chinese higher education. Also, the paper avails itself on data 2005-2011 about college enrollment, admission number, the number of high school graduates etc., and uses the Mingat Alain and Jeepeng Tan＇s ED （formula for the potential size of higher education） to analyze the potential scale of higher education in China. We find that higher education has not yet reached its full capacity. Using the Mincerrian rate of return as a perspective, the paper finally explores the significance of the guidelines by the Ministry of Education.