跨境贸易结算收付比上升与人民币汇率波动分析

Cross-border Trade Settlement Ratio of Receipts and Payments Rising and the RMB Exchange Rate Volatility

人民币结算收付比自2011年下半年起快速上升,在跨境贸易人民币结算推行后存在明显的"跛足"特征,人民币实付远高于实收。本文结合中国特殊的贸易结构,从结算货币选择的本质出发,分析了人民币结算"跛足"特征的成因,认为人民币升值预期减弱、香港套利资金减少等是收付比快速上升的主要原因。因此,要顺利推进人民币国际化,须将收付比控制在适当范围。

The RMB settlement ratio of receipts and payments has been rapidly increasing since the second half of 2011, there is a “lame” characteristics -the RMB real pay is much higher than the paid -in.Starting from the nature of the currency option, this paper analyzes the characteristics of RMB settlement “lame” combining with China′s special trade structure, thinking the weakness of appreciation expectations of the RMB and the reduction of arbitrage funds in Hong Kong are the main reasons.To successfully promote the internationalization of the RMB , the ratio of receipts and pay-ments should be controlled in the appropriate range .