一种基于供电裕度的电网实时风险分析法及其应用

A Method and Application for the Analysis of Power Grid's Timely Risk Based on Power Margin

提出了一种基于供电裕度的电网实时风险分析方法.通过计算N-1事故预想集下电网主要节点的潮流变化,并与电网所能承受的极限供电能力进行比较,得出当前电网方式各种事故情况下的供电裕度,同时依据《国家电网公司安全事故调查规程》中对事故等级的规定,确定当前电网可能的风险等级,给出避免发生该等级事故和应急处置的辅助决策.

This paper presents a method for the analysis of power grid timely risk based on power margin. By calculating flow change of the power grid nodes for the N - 1 contingency set, and comparing with the limits of power supply capacity, the power margin of various accident modes can be obtained. At the same time, ac- cording to the risk level provision of ＂China State Grid Corp. Safety Accident Investigation Procedures＂, we can determine the potential risk level of current power grid, and further give the method for avoiding the risk and assistant decision of emergency disposal.