资本账户政策对人民币汇率调整路径的影响——基于资产组合平衡模型的理论与数据分析

The Effect of Capital Account Policies on the Adjustment Path of RMB Real Exchange Rate——An Analysis Based on Portfolio Balance Approach

本文构建了中国的资产组合平衡模型,引入了度量不同资本账户政策工具的指标,用中国和国际数据对模型进行了模拟,分析了资本账户政策对人民币汇率调整路径的影响。研究结果表明,资本账户实现完全可兑换初期,人民币实际汇率会出现过度升值的现象,之后逐渐贬值至长期均衡水平;若政府希望避免初期人民币大幅度的升值,并放缓调整速度,建议在资本账户实现完全可兑换后,降低资本账户项下的交易成本,尤其是降低流出资本的交易成本;在资本账户实现完全可兑换前,政府应同时取消对流入和流出资本的限额管制。但如政府先取消对流出资本的限额管制,反而会增大人民币实际汇率过度升值的幅度。

The article establishes China's portfolio balance model,introduces measure indexes for price-based and quantity-based capital account policy tools,and uses the model to simulate the adjustment path of RMB real exchange rate towards its long-term equilibrium after the capital account liberalization in China and assesses the impact of different capital account policies on the adjustment path.The results show that,upon the capital account liberalization in China,RMB will over-appreciate initially and then gradually depreciate to its equilibrium value.This initial overshooting of RMB can be mitigated either by reducing the transaction costs on capital flows,especially on capital outflows,after the capital account liberalization,or by simultaneously relaxing the capital controls on capital inflows and outflows before the capital account liberalization.But if capital controls on capital outflows are first relaxed,the initial overshooting of RMB can be exaggerated.