金融结构与经济发展:最优金融结构存在吗?——基于跨国面板数据的GMM估计

Financial Structure and Economic Development:Does An Optimal Financial Structure Exist?——A GMM Estimation based on Multinational Panel Data

在经济发展过程中是否存在最优金融结构问题将关系到金融结构失衡程度与优化方向,因此深入探讨最优金融结构变得尤为重要。本文首先依据微观经济学理论分析了金融结构与经济发展之间的关系,并提出了存在最优金融结构的理论假设。然后选取33个国家1989年至2009年的面板数据,建立静态与动态面板数据模型,运用GMM估计、固定效应与随机效应回归方法进行实证检验,研究结果表明:(1)金融结构与经济发展之间关系是非线性的,二者呈现"倒U"型关系;(2)在经济发展过程中,存在最优金融结构,证实了本文的理论假设。最后提出了金融结构优化的政策意见。

Whether there is an optimal financial structure during the process of economic development is the issue that is related to the degree of financial structure imbalance and the direction of financial optimization,so it is particularly important to thoroughly discuss the optimal financial structure.Firstly,the article analyzes the relationship between financial structure and economic development based on microeconomic theories,and proposes a theoretical assumption that there is an optimal financial structure.Then it selects the panel data of 33 countries from 1989 to 2009,creates a static and dynamic panel data model,and uses GMM estimation,fixed effects and random effects regression methods to conduct empirical tests.The results indicate that:(1) there is a nonlinear 'inverted U' type relationship between financial structure and economic development;(2)there is an optimal financial structure during the process of economic development,confirming the theoretical assumptions of this article.Finally it gives out policy suggestions on the optimization of financial structure.