中国利率市场化改革效应的DSGE模拟分析

China's Interest Rate Liberalization Effect : A DSGE-Based Simulation Analysis

本文构建包括家庭部门、企业部门、金融部门和中央银行在内的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟在利率管制、部分市场化、完全市场化三种情形下,货币需求冲击、技术冲击、贷款冲击、利率冲击对宏观经济的影响。结果表明,货币需求冲击和利率冲击对经济产生负向影响,技术冲击和贷款冲击对经济产生正向影响,前者随中国利率市场化程度的上升而增大,后者随中国利率市场化程度的上升而下降。因此,抑制通货膨胀需要配合其他政策措施才能稳定经济增长,最终为利率市场化改革的顺利推进提供稳定的宏观经济环境,发挥市场化改革的经济效应。

Based on construct the DSGE model, which includes household, enterprises, financial institutions and central bank, this paper analyzes the impacts of the shocks of money demand, technology, lending and interest-rate on economic fluctuations under the conditions of rate control, partial liberalization and fully liberalization in China. The results show that the shocks of money demand and interest rate have positive impacts on economics, while the shocks of lending and technology have negative impacts on economics, the former is increasing but the latter is decreasing with deepening the liberalization of interest rate in China. Thus, interest rate liberalization will be beneficial that should take some actions to spur economic growth when dampen inflation to stable economic environment for advancing reform.