2004—2012年江苏口岸HIV感染者流行特征及GM(1,1)趋势预测

Epidemic characteristics and GM(1,1) prediction of HIV infection at Jiangsu ports from 2004 to 2012

目的分析口岸人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染者的流行特征,建立检出率趋势预测灰色模型(GM)。方法以2004—2012年江苏口岸检出的214例HIV感染者及出入境人员为研究对象,在知情同意的基础上进行流行病学调查,明确流行特征,应用灰色系统理论建立口岸艾滋病检出率的预测模型。结果口岸HIV感染者以男性中年人为主,学历层次较低,2004—2012年检出率平均值为总体平衡在0.0002210,需要努力加以控制。经性途径传播是出入境人员主要的HIV传播方式。GM(1,1)预测检出率效果好,2011、2012年检出率分别为0.000246、0.000230,预测检出率分别是0.000210、0.000230,预测准确性高于85%。与实际检出率平均差异为7.48%。结论口岸HIV感染者有其独特的流行病学特征,在GM方法的基础上,要提高社会支持力度,实施唾液快速检测,注重宣传教育的实效性。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of port HI~ infection, and to establish GM method to predict the trend of infection rate. Methods A total of 214 cases with HIV infection at Jiangsu ports from 20（M-2012 and the entry-exit personnel as the research object, epidemiological survey was conducted on the basis of informed consent, the epidemic characteristics were analyzed, prediction model of grey system theory was applied to establish person＇ s detection rate of HIV. Results Most people with HIV infection were in middle-aged men, with low education level. The average detection rate was the overall balance in 0.0002210, also need to work hard to control the epidemic situation. Sexual transmission was the main HIV communication mode of entry-exit person. GM （1, 1） based on the data from 20（M to 2012 to predict the detection rate had good effect, the actual average difference was 7.48%. The detection rate of 2011 and 2012 were 0.000246 and 0.000230, the prediction rate were 0.000210 and 0.000230. The prediction accuracy was more than 85%. Conclusion The port HIV infection has its unique epidemiological features. On the basis of GM method, the social support, the rapid detection of saliva, and the effectiveness of health education need to be improved.