不确定性防范与城市务工人员主观幸福感 基于反事实框架的研究

Insurance against Uncertainty and Subjective Wellbeing of City Workers:Based on the Counterfactual Framework

本文基于2007年中国家庭收入调查数据,评估了不确定性防范对城市务工人员的影响,并获得了一些重要发现:(1)不同类型的不确定性防范措施对影响居民主观幸福感存在着显著差异,参与养老保险、失业保险和工伤保险能够显著提高城市务工人员主观幸福感,但参与医疗保险对城市务工人员主观幸福感没有显著影响;(2)四种不确定性防范手段对城市务工人员之间主观幸福感差异的总贡献率接近10%,其中参与失业保险的贡献率最大。进一步研究发现,城市务工人员主观幸福感变化符合享乐适应理论,即随着不确定性防范措施的逐步实施推广,城市务工人员的主观幸福感可能会返回到未采取不确定性防范措施前的水平。

With the central government paying more attention to livelihood issues, how to make people feel happy has become an important theme of governmental work. Against this background, this study used city workers＇ subjective happiness as an index of livelihood to systematically investigate the impacts of insurance against uncertainty on their subjective wellbeing. The existing literature about the important mechanisms of such insurances affecting people＇s subjective wellbeing was first reviewed, and then their effects on city workers＇subjective wellbeing were evaluated using the data from 2007 Chinese Household Income Survey. It was found that different types of insurances had significantly different effects on city workers＇ subjective wellbeing. Having pension insurance, unemployment insurance and injury insurance significantly improved city workers＇ subjective wellbeing, whereas participating in health insurance didn＇t. The total variance of the city workers＇ subjective wellbeing that could be explained by the four kinds of insurances was 10 percent, with the unemployment insurance being the most important factor. According to the hedonic adaptation theory, city workers＇ subjective wellbeing will change, that is to say, with insurance against uncertainty being gradually promoted and implemented, the subjective wellbeing of the city workers may regress to their pre-insurance level. If so, the government＇ s current effects to improve people＇s livelihood via insurance policies are worthy of recognition, however, their returns in term of livelihood will be diminishing with the gradual popularization of the social security system. Thus, the government should pay attention to the quality of the long-term operation of the social security system.