四类城市建设用地扩张影响因素研究——以北京市昌平区为例

Determinants of Land Conversion to Urban Uses in Changping District,Beijing

了解城市建设用地扩张背后的驱动机制是理解城市空间形态和城市结构演变的关键,也是制定城市规划的基础。本文选取北京市昌平区为研究区域,利用2001年和2010年昌平区土地利用现状数据,采用Auto Logistic模型研究地形、区位、可达性、社会经济、政策等方面的影响因素对土地从非建设用途转变为住宅、工业、采矿、商业用途的影响。研究结果表明:①不同建设用地类型扩张的主要影响因素不同;②有关影响因素对于不同类型建设用地的作用力大小和方向有所不同。具体地,地形和规划对各类建设用地扩张均有显著影响,其他因素对不同类型建设用地扩张的影响有所差异;住宅用地扩张受地铁站点影响比较明显;人口增长和经济发展是工业用地扩张的推动力,临近村委会和道路对工业用地扩张有利;采矿用地扩张以矿产资源的赋存位置为基础,空间自相关因子和规划因素对其扩张的影响并不显著;商业用地扩张则主要受人口增长等因素的影响。

Knowing the major determinants of land conversion from rural to urban uses is critical to rationally utilizing land resources and promoting land use efficiency. In this paper, we aimed to identify the factors responsible for residential, industrial, mining and commercial land development in Changping District in Beijing, China. Land use conditions from 2001 and 2010 were mapped using vector data and auto logistic regression was used to model the probability of observed urban development as a function of spatially explicit independent variables. The results suggested that determinants vary for different types of urban land uses and that the impacts of the same factors on different types of land use also vary in magnitude and direction. Specifically, terrain condition and land use planning influenced most kinds of land expansion; other factors had more complex situations. Residential land development was mostly influenced by metro stations, while population change and economic levels did not have a significant effect. The distance from villages and roads was an important factor for industrial and commercial land sprawl, and population change also influenced the latter remarkably. Mining land development was not significantly affected by land use planning and location characteristics, probably due to its dependence on resource endowments. In conclusion, policy-makers should consider the characteristics of different kinds of land development. Although our model explains the determinants of four types of urban land sprawl, it is limited when explaining the influences between different land types.