华北地区能源行业产出对气象条件变化的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analyses of The Energy Output Impacted by Meteorological Disasters in North China

全球性的气候变化正在成为社会经济的重大影响因素,能源行业的发展也面临着应对气候变化,特别是包括应对极端气候事件在内的影响因素。本文旨在研究气象灾害对华北地区能源行业产出的影响变化情况,将气象因素引入超越对数生产函数,对1987-2010年的相关数据进行动态的分析,研究能源行业产出对气象条件变化的历年敏感性影响,并具体分析气象灾害对能源行业产出的影响方向和程度。研究结果显示:①气象条件变化对华北地区各省市的影响程度和方向不一,但总体而言对能源行业产出存在显著敏感性影响;②就整个华北地区而言,低温冰雪灾害对能源行业的影响程度远大于高温、干旱、洪涝等灾害对能源行业的影响程度;③从历年变化的角度来看,华北地区能源行业产出对气候因素变化的敏感性变化情况,与各省市相关气象灾害的分布和损失情况存在某种一致性。根据敏感性研究结果提出相关政策建议。

The development of the energy industry has an important impact on economic and social development, but is also faced with the effects of climate change and extreme climate events. In order to assess the impacts of climate change and weather disasters on energy output in northern China, a Cobb-Douglas （C-D in short） Production Function incorporating meteorological factors was adopted here. Our aim was to further expand production function and the reference beyond logarithm production function to data from 1987 to 2010 for dynamic analysis of energy industry output sensitivity to variation in meteorological conditions. We found that meteorological changes in northern China have different influence degrees and direction, but on the whole, output sensitivity has an influence on the energy industry. In terms of northern China, the influence of low temperature ice and snow disasters is greater than high temperatures, drought and flood disasters on the energy industry. From the perspective of historical change, sensitivity analyses of the energy output impacted by meteorological disasters in northern China is in line with the distribution and losses of related meteorological disaster of provinces and cities. We suggest construction of energy projects, energy transport, energy consumption, prevention priorities, disaster prevention system and several other components.