石油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的分析

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy——A DSGE Approach

本文建立了一个包含货币政策的DSGE模型并利用1999年—2011年的季度数据对模型的参数进行估计,然后分析了石油价格冲击对于宏观经济波动的影响。我们发现,石油价格上涨冲击对于产出的负向作用更大,导致货币当局选择宽松的货币政策去迅速缓解产出受到的反向冲击,但通货膨胀将会持续更长时间,从而出现产出与通胀"双增长"情况。此外,对于我国这样的经济体系,为了稳定产出而采取的适度宽松的货币政策能够更好地稳定各经济变量。

We develop a DSGE model and investigate how the oil price shocks affect China＇s macro-economy. We found that the rising ofoil price has big negative effect on out- put, which enforce the monetary authority to react it through easing the monetary policy to offset the loss of output. However, inflation will hence exist and last for a while, accompanied with the increase of output. It may be a better choice for China to tolerant mode- rate inflation to maintain the operation of China＇s macro-economy system.