论城镇化是否一定能够促进经济增长——基于19国面板VAR模型的实证分析

Can Urbanization Necessarily Promote Economic Growth?——An Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model of 19 Countries

城市化是经济发展的必经过程,但城市化一定能够促进经济增长吗?本文选取战后城市化水平快速发展的19个国家建立面板数据模型,通过协整检验、Granger因果检验和面板向量自回归模型探讨城市化与经济增长的相关关系。研究发现:二者存在长期稳定关系,经济增长是城市化水平提高的原因,但城市化并不是经济增长的原因;二者呈现弱正相关,相互解释程度极低。本文认为单纯将城市化作为政策工具用以推动经济增长,很难实现。一者,借鉴拉美地区发展中国家经验,与经济发展水平不匹配的城市化使经济发展陷入困境的风险极大;二者,发达国家往往收入差距小,经济发展主要依靠技术进步和资本积累,城市化更多是经济发展的一种必然结果。最后,给出我国在发展新型城镇化过程中的相关政策建议。

Urbanization is a necessary course during economic development, but can urbanization really promote the economic growth？ This paper choose 19 countries which have relatively fast urbanization development after the World War 11 , build a panel data model, explore the relationship between urbanization and economic growth by CointegrationTest, Granger Causality Test and Panel - data VAR model. Research found that there is a stable long-term relation between urbanization and economic growth. Economic growth is the cause of the urbanization, but urbanization is not the cause of the economic growth. It shows a weak positive correlation between them, and the degree they can explain to each other is extremely low. This paper holds the view that it is impossible to boost economic development solely by using urbanization as a policy instrument. One hand, from the experience of developing countries in Latin American, urbanization unmatched with economic performance may cause a high risk of falling into dilemma; on the other hand, economic development in advanced countries is mainly based on technical progress and capital accumulation, while urbanization is a result of economic development. This paper also puts forward relevant suggestions on Chinese new-type urbanization.